A couple of weeks ago I wrote a Substack about how in foreign policy, one must always account for the unexpected.
But wow, I never saw this one coming!
In a stunning surprise assault, Israel’s military struck Iran’s military leadership, nuclear sites, scientists, and a multitude of targets inside of Iran. In my view, this was the single most daring Israeli military gamble made by the State of Israel since the Six-Day War. That’s because unlike other actions (like the pager strike against Hezbollah), this one entails attacking a major military adversary preemptively, just as Israel did back in 1967 against Egypt, Syria, and Jordan.
And as I write this piece, the dice are still rolling. I pray for a minimal loss of life amongst both the Israeli and Iranian people.
I’ve done a variety of TV interviews during the past 24 hours about the assault, its reasons for happening, and what we can expect going forward. I’ve included a video reel of some of the interviews in this post for you. And I imagine that as this war continues, there will be many more opportunities to engage and discuss the implications of this stunning moment.
So for now, I’m happy to share with you my initial take on why I believe the Israeli attack happened. These are thoughts that I shared this morning on my Facebook page as I was getting ready to do interviews throughout the day. I’m happy to share them with you below and am honored to have your support.
Israel Struck Iran. Why Now?
Israel has been focused on Iran’s nuclear program for many years. But this week, of all weeks, was when those concerns finally came to a head. Here’s why.
Iran was just censured at the International Atomic Energy Agency for the first time in 20 years for advancing its nuclear enrichment program beyond acceptable levels for a purely civilian program. It ramped up said enrichment to levels sufficient to build 9-10 nuclear warheads if weaponized. And it never met Donald Trump’s ask to abandon enrichment in exchange for a diplomatic deal.
The grave error that Iran’s leaders made is that they assumed that Israel would not strike them without direct American support. And they thought that Trump was going to engage in continued talks for the time being. In addition, they viewed the growing isolationist strand inside the Republican coalition as determinative in slowing down American support for military action. They were wrong on all counts.
Most significantly, Israel was edgy and saw a unique strategic window to strike. With Iran’s traditional military hedging assets decimated during the past year (i.e. Hezbollah, Hamas, Iranian air defenses), Israel saw a clear military path for a strike — but not an unlimited one.
Therefore, when Iran rejected the full dismantlement of its nuclear enrichment capacity, the writing was on the wall and an Israeli military strike became inevitable.
Now we’ll see how effective it was, and expect more fireworks in the days ahead, but after nearly three decades of warnings about Iran’s nuclear program, Israel said that enough was enough.
To be continued for all the world to watch…
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