Dear Friends — I’m happy to share an OpEd with you that I just published at National Security Journal about President Trump’s policy on Russia. The piece is below. And a special shout-out to National Security Leaders for America, of which I’m a member, as they both to helped secure and place the piece.
In addition, also included in this Substack post is an interview I did late last week on NewsNation, forecasting what a good Russia policy should look like. I’m glad that, with today’s announcement by the president, we’re beginning to move in that direction.
“Trump Adopts Joe Biden’s Ukraine Playbook (For Now)”
By Joel Rubin in National Security Journal (July 14, 2025)
In a move that I’ve long argued for – and frankly, didn’t expect to come – President Trump today finally took a critical step forward in America’s Russia policy. By combining military support for Ukraine with renewed economic pressure and diplomatic engagement, Trump may be laying the groundwork for a policy that has a real chance at ending this brutal war.
Trump Changes His Mind on Ukraine Strategy…
For months, we’ve needed a stronger Ukraine policy rooted in three principles: sustained military support, aggressive economic pressure, and robust diplomacy. These aren’t mutually exclusive. In fact, they work best together. And today, Trump seemed to embrace that reality. Trump had been dragging his feet, but now, under pressure, he’s shifting. That’s welcome, but it’s also a reminder that leadership delayed is leadership denied.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Yes, this was the right move. But it’s one that should have happened on day one of his presidency, back when he thought that just a phone call would do the trick of ending the war. It clearly did not.
Instead, we got six months of waffling – months filled with mixed signals, conspiracies, adulation of Vladimir Putin, and reckless threats towards Ukraine and NATO. The cost of that delay has been devastating, both for Ukraine and for America’s credibility on the world stage. It’s taken Trump far too long to see what’s been obvious to most of us all along: that only strength can compel Russia to change course.
TRUMP GOES JOE BIDEN ON UKRAINE WAR
Today’s announcement is also, in essence, a continuation of the Biden Administration’s Ukraine policy. It echoes what the previous administration spent years building: a mixture of tight coordination with NATO, security assistance to Ukraine, and economic sanctions on Russia. The difference? Biden acted with consistency. Trump has meandered, making us look weak. I’m glad that there’s now a change in both tone and substance.
Importantly, our NATO partners are contributing financially to pay for the weapons we’ve made. That’s a smart move, and a recognition by the administration that collective security can work to amplify our power. Let us hope that this is also the beginning of a new appreciation for American multilateralism.
But even at this momentous juncture, the cracks are visible. Why are we waiting 50 days to implement new sanctions, if, according to Trump’s demand, Putin does not end the war? That means that today, despite the headlines, no new sanctions are being implemented, and that Putin is in control of the sanctions timetable.
Why not implement them now, when they could bite hardest? This delay sends a signal that we’re not serious enough, and are instead waiting to see if Putin will agree. This will likely give Putin more time to maneuver, delay, and bomb.
And what about Congressional sanctions? Trump still hasn’t greenlit the package that’s supported by 85 senators. That’s because he’s demanding that any new sanctions bill have a full presidential waiver in it, thereby giving him unearned wiggle room and writing out Congressional oversight, raising serious concerns about whether he’s committed to seeing this through.
WILL TRUMP REALLY DO IT?
It still goes without saying that I’m glad that Trump is moving in this direction. And yes, I’ll give credit where it’s due. But until this policy is fully executed – until those weapons arrive and those sanctions hit – I’ll believe it when I see it. Only then will we be confident that a new policy has come and that Putin will feel to pinch to change course.
It’s also worth remembering how far we’ve come. This is the same Donald Trump who once called Putin a “genius” for invading Ukraine, who withheld aid from Ukraine while pressuring its president for political favors, and who sought to appease the Kremlin under the guise of restoring U.S.-Russia relations.
But you can’t rebuild a relationship with Moscow by abandoning your democratic allies. Ukraine’s resilience, NATO’s unity, and Putin’s public humiliation of Trump’s calls for a ceasefire are what has forced Trump’s hand.
This shift therefore opens a potential path forward. If implemented with consistency and clarity, it could reset the board; not to surrender to Russia, and not to prolong a quagmire, but to create the conditions necessary for real negotiations. That means weakening Russia’s leverage while strengthening Ukraine’s hand – exactly what today’s moves aim to do.
So, Trump can’t let up. He must see this through to get a diplomatic deal that will end this war. This war will end when the costs of aggression outweigh the benefits – and today, Donald Trump took a step towards making that calculation real for Vladimir Putin.
So yes, I’m surprised. But I’m also hopeful. Trump has shown some backbone on Russia. Let’s hope he keeps it, because Ukraine doesn’t have time to wait. And neither do we.
Joel Rubin is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and the Author of The Briefing Book on Substack. He’s also a member of National Security Leaders for America. You can follow hom on X: @joelmartinrubin.
Share this post