If you thought that you knew exactly what Donald Trump’s foreign policy towards the Middle East was, I have a pretty strong hunch that right about now you’re thinking that you were wrong. Trust me, you’re not alone.
And that doesn’t even take into account the issue of the largest gift ever offered by a foreign government to an American president. A new plane! This one shatters the gift rule for Executive Branch employees, which caps gifts at $50 per year from any single source - making the Qatari gift about $399,999,950 too high!
But what we can be sure about is that these two points directly intersect, and that this week we will witness the policy and the personal merge on Trump’s Middle East trip.
When it comes to Middle East policy, remember, Donald Trump is a man who, when he was president the first time, tore up a nuclear deal with Iran that was verifiably working to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb. Now he wants that deal back.
This is also a man who said just this past March that Hamas would have “hell to pay” if it didn’t immediately release all the hostages it stole from Israel. Two months later, we’re still waiting, although mercifully, one American-Israeli was released yesterday.
And this is also a president who made the Abraham Accords a centerpiece of his first term regional strategy, bringing Israel into normal ties with multiple Middle Eastern countries. But now, he’s moving away from that legacy, particularly with Saudi Arabia, and is instead on the verge of cutting a deal with Saudi that leaves Israel out.
Lastly, remember that this is a man who continually attacked President Biden for allegedly not being supportive enough of Israel, but then when the Israeli Prime Minister asked him to visit Israel while in the Middle East on this trip, he said “no.” Biden went there in the first days of the war in Gaza. The difference is chasmic.
So what about that plane?
There are many ways to look at this wild issue. From my perspective, what amazes me most is how Trump seems absolutely confounded that anyone - anyone! - would question his judgment about accepting a $400 million gift from a foreign country.
The issue isn’t that a country offered him a free plane — it’s that he sees no reason to not take it. Never mind the fact that the plane is actually a gift to the United States and should be treated as such by him passing it on to the next president, as is customary… and most definitely not into the private treasure chest of Donald Trump.
It also really doesn’t matter who the gifting country is. It could be the United Kingdom as much as it could be China. And one should also probably give some props to Qatar for being incredibly realistic in its assessment of Donald Trump. After all, they see what every other world leader sees: an American leader who has a blind spot for corruption of the office of the presidency, meaning that gestures like this carry huge potential upsides for their country.
This gift is now likely the first of many more to come from countries that want happy relations with Trump.
The question then is what is Trump’s actual policy towards the Middle East and how will it play out on this trip to the region? With all these policy convolutions and financial cross currents, it’s incredibly difficult to figure out.
Some internationalists are gnashing their teeth, arguing that Trump is too transactional and not focused enough on American values. They have a point.
Some isolationists are also hot and bothered, concerned that Trump is starting to assert American power and praying that he backs off. They have a point too.
But the real point is that we actually don’t know. And I have a suspicion that neither does Trump. It seems like he’s just waiting to see what the next deal is that he’ll be offered, operating in receive mode rather than asserting American leadership.
The risks for America from having such a chaotic foreign policy are significant. Our allies need to be able to depend on us and our adversaries need to know that we’re serious. But instead of providing certainty about where the United States stands, what’s happening now does the opposite.
And if you’re a regional leader, your head must be spinning.
After all, if you were Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, wouldn’t you be surprised right about now? And if you were the leaders of Iran, wouldn’t you be surprised too? That’s probably why the Qataris - and likely the Saudis and Emiratis as well - are so willing to part with massive sums of money in order to get the attention of Trump.
They know that they can’t firmly rely on him or his policy proclivities, so they do what they need to do to get some certainty. They attempt to buy it.
But each of these leaders better be careful. Because as we’re learning every day with the president, one day you’re up, the next day you’re down. Buyer beware.
But it certainly is a great way for the world to be motivated into making tributes to Donald Trump.
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