Well, that was fast! America’s top diplomat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, just got a new job as the National Security Advisor. This is in addition to the other two he already had as the head of both the National Archives and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Maybe four jobs at once is a charm.
Fortunately for Rubio (but not for us), President Trump just asked Congress to cut the State Department’s budget by more than 80%, so perhaps he can juggle all of those jobs after all. But I’m not counting on it. And this is not a knock on Rubio. It’s just cold hard reality. Moonlighting on foreign policy usually doesn’t end well.
I mean, who needs an effective leader of American diplomacy, one stretched beyond capacity, when multiple wars are raging in nuclear hotspots? (Answer: we do.) What could possibly go wrong? (Answer: a lot.)
Just think for a moment — India and Pakistan are rattling sabers in their worst military crisis in over two decades. Between them, they have about several hundred nuclear weapons pointed directly at each other. This is the nuclear hotspot most likely to create a nuclear winter. Not good.
Then there’s Russia and Ukraine, with the not-so-ready-to-agree-to-a-ceasefire Vladimir Putin taking his time, stringing President Trump along with the allure of a potential peace deal. There are only roughly 5,500 nukes in Russia’s hands. Nothing to worry about there. (!)
And then we come to Iran, the country that’s continually toying with the idea of having a nuclear program that walks just up to but doesn’t cross the line of weaponization. Trump seems to get it this time, that a durable nuclear deal (which he tore up in 2018) is better than no deal at all. But is a durable deal even possible this time? Ask our Israeli allies what they think and you’ll hear the answer. (Hint: no.)
The question then isn’t “why” Rubio got his fourth job, but what is he actually going to be able to do with it? And why is President Trump essentially weakening the leadership of both the State Department and the National Security Council by depriving them each of a full time leader? And why now, in the midst of all these potential nuclear crises, would he make such a chaos-inducing choice?
Remember, we can’t bomb our way into resolving the India/Pakistan, Russia/Ukraine, and Iran/Israel nuclear crises. No matter how large our defense spending increases are (Trump wants to increase it by 13%), having more military hardware won’t fix these conflicts, which are rooted in deep national interests and fears.
What we need instead is for our diplomats to get in there, under the hood, to address these problems before they go nuclear. And they need more diplomatic tools, not less, at their disposal to be effective. This includes having a fully focused Secretary of State.
What they don’t need - nor do we - is diplomatic chaos at the top.
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