The seemingly unending war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip may be mercifully coming to a pause. The just-announced ceasefire for hostages deal (let’s call it the “January Deal”), as publicly understood, will be comprised of multiple phases that largely reflect the Biden proposal from this past May.
Back in May, the three phases were as follows:
(1) A six week ceasefire with the return of some hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli jails; Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawals from some Palestinian population centers; Palestinian civilian returns to northern Gaza; and a surge in humanitarian aid. Note: this January deal will release 33 hostages in phase one.
(2) Negotiations to create a permanent cessation of hostilities and the return of all hostages, with the temporary ceasefire remaining in place during negotiations; the goal being the withdrawal of the IDF from all of Gaza and the return of all hostages.
(3) Gaza reconstruction through a multiyear program that’s internationally backed, including resolving questions of governance, post-conflict structures, and Israeli security concerns.
What’s remarkable about today’s January Deal is that it largely reflects this original May structure. It’s clear that American political dynamics played a major role in the past weeks of negotiations, giving a final push to decision-makers to actually decide, as President-elect Trump tacitly endorsed and advocated for the May Biden proposal. This means that there are many different players who can claim credit for the agreement being made - a good sign for diplomacy and one that creates confidence that the deal will be fully implemented.
Here are some interesting takeaways from these negotiations that are worth noting:
(1) American foreign policy is at its best when it’s bipartisan: This agreement, while long in the making, has been remarkably consistent in its structure and substance. But what has changed is that, unlike during the past half year and its political season, President-elect Trump is now fully on board with the Biden plan from May. This means that both sides of the American political aisle were speaking with one voice, making our message clear and our diplomacy more effective, and disabusing the notion amongst the region’s players that they would see any new negotiating parameters. This was the deal, and it was time to decide.
(2) Israeli security confidence has grown significantly since September: On the Israeli side, there’s been a clear improvement in the country’s strategic situation, especially regarding its decimation of Hezbollah, the collapse of Assad, and the destruction of Iranian air defenses. When combined with the massive blows taken by Hamas, weakening it significantly, including the killing of its leader and 10/7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar, Israelis’ sense of physical security has significantly improved. The political environment in Israel was therefore more conducive than ever to making a deal, providing PM Netanyahu the domestic backing he needed to make an agreement with Hamas to get the hostages back.
(3) Middle East countries wanted a deal and have signed up to back it: It’s clear that Middle Eastern diplomacy has been heavily invested in a deal for a ceasefire. American allies Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey have been on-point throughout the negotiations, pressing Hamas to agree to a deal. Saudi Arabia has also pushed for a deal as an initial step towards getting to a negotiation for an Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution and a Saudi peace with Israel. The list goes on and on, and these countries will now be called upon to support both the physical reconstruction of Gaza and a political program for Palestinians that leads to their internal stability and possibly peace talks with Israel. What these countries didn’t do - and this can’t be taken for granted - was join the war that Hamas started, instead seeking (unlike Iran and its proxies) to tamp it down, proving their acceptance of Israel’s existence. Israel can now work confidently with these regional partners on Palestinian diplomacy.
Ultimately, this deal is a sign of what happens when unified diplomacy works! It also serves as an inflection point for the next American president to see what he can do with it. Donald Trump will be starting his term with the Israeli-Hamas war on pause. This is a diplomatic gift for him from President Biden that he should not waste. What matters, starting next Monday, is how he aims to build on it - including how to deal with the thorny Gaza reconstruction issues and the future of Hamas.
Addressing these issues will determine whether this pause blossoms into a greater calm and peace between Israelis and Palestinians, or whether it falls backwards again, towards the abyss.
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