Hi there! It’s been a while since I last sent out a post and I’m grateful to you for sticking with me. My last post - the “Oval Office Meltdown” between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy - seems like an eternity ago. But it’s only been 5 weeks! With that, I’m happy to send you a new post.
President Trump just announced major global tariffs five days ago. These tariffs will affect 90% of global trade, and are, in essence, the launch of an American economic war on the world.
These tariffs will have severe impacts, but are borne from a legitimate concern that too many Americans have been left behind economically. They have been. But one has to ask if upending the entire global trading system in the biggest economic gamble ever made by an American president is the right call to fix these ills.
Yet for me, from a political perspective, what’s truly concerning is that Trump’s Liberation Day eerily echoes an episode that I remember quite starkly - when President George W. Bush prematurely announced to the world that the Iraq War was won. Mission Accomplished. It was anything but. Trump too may rue the day that he used the term Liberation Day to claim credit for winning an economic battle, just as Bush erroneously did for a military one.
We all remember what happened after Bush declared Mission Accomplished on May 1, 2003 on the USS Abraham Lincoln. All hell broke loose. Soon after, an insurgency began that dragged all of Iraq into the abyss. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died. American service members were killed and wounded in the tens of thousands. Iran was unleashed. And democracy did not - despite chest thumping claims to the contrary on that day - spread across the Middle East.
The term Mission Accomplished, with all its hubris and utopian dreams, became the truest symbol - the bumper sticker - of the folly of the Iraq War.
I fear the same is happening now, but that this time it’s the assertion that these tariffs will magically fix all of our economy’s ills. Color me wary.
So when I look at Trump’s move, I can’t help but be skeptical.
Not just because the tariffs are targeted at punishing the countries who run trade surpluses against us… as opposed to creating reciprocal tariff rates in order to level the trade playing field, which is what was expected.
And not just because the stock market dropped by nearly 10% in just two days, leading to $7 trillion of lost wealth.
And not because these tariffs are being implemented without Congressional input, despite Congress’ clear constitutional role in the Commerce Clause to regulate trade (Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3).
And not because our economy is already facing severe shocks from the nearly 200,000 federal job firings and still lingering inflation, which this will likely exacerbate.
And not because Congressional Republicans are on the verge of extending tax cuts that will keep our annual deficit in the trillions for years to come (yikes!).
And not because this is all meant to create leverage to negotiate. If it is, then great! But one thing’s for certain: it’s unclear how the president will negotiate with tariffed countries so that the tariffs can be reduced.
And not because by economically destabilizing countries that are already on the edge, we can cause governments to collapse when we least expect it, creating national security problems.
And not because China has already retaliated with a 34% tariff on all American imports, threatening a global trade war. (It has.)
And not because there isn’t a need to truly invest in American manufacturing and the devastated factory towns speckled throughout the country. Because there is.
I’m skeptical because I just don’t buy the idea that a single unicorn of a tariff policy can fix all of our economic ills. I don’t believe that such a policy will magically rebuild factories throughout the heartland. I don’t believe that it will turn our budgetary red ink into black ink overnight. I don’t believe that it will just simply create more wealth than we could ever imagine by waving the magic tariff wand.
Policy unicorns don’t exist. Been there, done that.
So beware the triumphant utopian fantasies we’re being sold. Making an economy work for everyone in this country is extremely complicated and takes a well thought out comprehensive strategy with flawless execution. A press conference is not enough. Just ask former President Bush.
But what I really fear now is that President Trump’s commitment to this policy, just as we saw with Bush, means that he will continue forward on this path, just as Bush did, even if there’s ample evidence to the contrary.
May we all be lucky enough for it to turn out differently this time, and for Liberation Day to not become Mission Accomplished 2.0.
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